The 20 most similar historical sessions across 25 features, and what followed them.
Prior close profile (2026-08-18, QQQ $717.51): session -1.69% · 5-day -0.13% · vs 200-DMA +10.1% · below 52-week high -3.8% · RSI2=10 · VIX 15.8 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.70)
Closest analog 2025-11-04 (distance 0.41): session -2.03% · 5-day -2.16% · vs 200-DMA +15.1% · below 52-week high -2.6% · RSI2=17 · VIX 19.0 · policy rate 3.87% (1-year -0.96)
What followed: next day +0.65% ·
5-day +0.37% ·
20-day +0.69%
Side by side | 2026-08-18 (prior session) -1.69% ↔ 2025-11-04 -2.03%; today maps to the day after 2025-11-04, which was +0.65% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)
| Analog (top 5) | Distance |
That day |
Next day |
5 days on |
RSI2 then |
20 days on |
| 2025-11-04 |
0.41 |
-2.03% |
+0.65% |
+0.37% |
17 |
+0.69% |
| 2025-12-12 |
0.44 |
-1.91% |
-0.50% |
+0.56% |
6 |
+2.06% |
| 2025-08-19 |
0.51 |
-1.36% |
-0.59% |
+0.58% |
3 |
+3.64% |
| 2018-05-15 |
0.51 |
-1.11% |
+0.66% |
+0.18% |
21 |
+4.74% |
| 2025-02-03 |
0.51 |
-0.80% |
+1.23% |
+2.15% |
17 |
-4.35% |
Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean +0.23% (up 60% of the time, range -1.3% to +1.4%) · 5-day +0.83% (70%) · 20-day +2.15% (85%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.
25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-08-18 (6895 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.
Research output, not investment advice.