NAAIM Manager Equity Exposure · week of 2026-07-29
79.7 ↓ from 84
All-history band: Neutral-bullish (the usual range) (range roughly −5 to 120)
1-year percentile 19.2% · since-inception percentile 30.5% (141 weeks)
How to read: a high percentile means managers are broadly fully invested with little room to add; a low one means broad caution and room to buy back in. Contrarian predictive power is weak (4-week horizon) and the sample has never been tested through a bear market — atmosphere only, not a signal.
AAII Retail Sentiment Survey · week of 2026-08-26
Bull−bear spread -11.5 bulls 32.9% / bears 44.4%
39-year percentile 16.2% · 5-year percentile 32.7% (the distribution has shifted down; use the 5-year figure)
Historically a contrarian indicator, and it takes 3–4 weeks to work, not 1–2. Since 2020 the effect has broken down and at times inverted — low-weight atmosphere only.
CNN Fear & Greed Index · live
49.7 neutral
prior close 54.4 · one week ago 56.1 · one month ago 45.2
Percentile since 2022 49.9%
Backtested: no predictive power for same-day or next-day direction (its components are that day's price action, which makes it circular). Forward absolute returns are positive from every bucket; only the magnitude differs — pure atmosphere.
CBOE Equity Put/Call · 2026-08-28
0.62 index P/C 0.99 · total P/C 0.84
Percentile since 2023 56.5% (median over the same period 0.59)
Low = retail crowding into calls (speculative heat); high = heavy put demand (defensive)
Backtested: an extremely low P/C (call mania) does not mark tops — forward returns are in fact slightly positive, the opposite of the popular claim. Atmosphere only.
All four have been backtested: none carries tradable predictive power for same-day or next-day direction. They describe the sentiment backdrop and are not a basis for buying or selling.