Daily Forecast 2026-08-25

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📋 Morning Board 📏 Range Forecast Γ Gamma Map 🕰 Analog Days 📅 Calendar 🎯 9:00 Forecast ✅ Scorecard 🌡 Sentiment 🧭 Macro Score

📋Morning Board

Symbol	Prev close	Change	VIX / VXN (pct)	GEX ($B/1%)	Expected range
QQQ	$706.32	-1.00%	22.7 (43rd pctile)	-1.68B flip 709.4	1.23% (0.75–2.07)
SPY	$763.47	-0.29%	15.8 (22nd pctile)	-5.74B flip 766.0	0.73% (0.43–1.28)

QQQ RSI(2)13 neutral

QQQ vs 200-day+8.1%

QQQ GammaDealers short gamma ($-1.68B per 1% move), flip 709.4 sits -0.4% above spot

How to read this · VIX

σ Volatility Indices (VIX / VXN)

VIX = S&P 500 30-day implied volatility (maps to SPY); VXN = the same measure for the Nasdaq 100 (maps to QQQ). Percentile = share of the past year (252 trading days) that closed below the current value.

Index	Current	Percentile	1-year range	As of
VIX · SPY	15.85	22% pctile · Near median	13.5 ─ median 17.2 ─ 31.1	2026-08-24
VXN · QQQ	22.69	43% pctile · Near median	17.2 ─ median 23.3 ─ 33.5	2026-08-24

CBOE official daily closes (VIX from 1990, VXN from 2009). These are closing values, not intraday — the morning brief uses the prior session's close and the evening review the current close, so the series stays consistent with history with no point-in-time bias.

📏Range Forecast

Today's Range Forecast (pre-open)

⚠ 数据陈旧：本预测基于 2026-08-24 的日线（距今约 7 天）。落盘日线可能未更新（检查 PostClose_Rebuild 任务），下面的数字不可用于今日决策。

This section answers one question only: how far price is likely to swing between the open and the close (high minus low). It does not forecast direction — the directional version has been backtested repeatedly and produced no reliable signal.

Symbol	Tier	Forecast day range	80% interval	vs last 20d
SPY	Normal	0.73%	0.43% ~ 1.28%	About normal
A normal day with no particular signal. Run your usual parameters; no volatility-driven adjustment needed.
QQQ	Normal	1.23%	0.75% ~ 2.07%	Slightly below normal
A normal day with no particular signal. Run your usual parameters; no volatility-driven adjustment needed.

How to read this table
· Forecast day range: how far today's high is from today's low, as a percentage of the current price.For example 0.73% above means the day's high and low are expected to differ by about 0.73%.
· 80% interval:on 8 days out of 10 the actual value lands between 0.43% and 1.28%; on the other 2 it falls outside. That is the honest error band — the real value may be half the forecast, or half again as large.
· Tier: days are bucketed into large / medium / small. When it says “High”, about 6 times out of 10 the day really is large, versus barely 3 in 10 for a blind guess. Good enough to size positions and choose strike width; not good enough to compute precise P&L.
· “Tier” and “vs last 20d” can look contradictory, and that is normal: the tier compares against the past several years, the right-hand column against the last 20 days. “High tier but about normal” means the recent period has itself been high-volatility — today is not exceptional, but the overall environment is jumpy and position sizing should stay cautious.
· A 10:00 intraday revision email follows, folding in the actual range and volume from the first half hour; the forecast gets sharper then.

Technical: out-of-sample R² SPY 0.51 / QQQ 0.49, model refits on every run.

ΓGamma Map

Symbol	Spot	Net GEX ($B per 1%)	Regime	Zero-gamma flip	Call wall	Put wall	Pin
QQQ	$708.88	-0.23B	Dealers short gamma	$714.70 (spot below)	$711 +0.30% · OI 2,080	$708 -0.12% · OI 1,326	—
SPY	$765.00	-3.78B	Dealers short gamma	$772.49 (spot below)	$769 +0.52% · OI 1,899	$762 -0.39% · OI 2,646	—

Positive gamma: dealers sell rallies and buy dips, damping moves. Negative gamma: dealers chase, amplifying moves.

Walls are gamma-weighted, not raw OI. 503-day test: a NEAR call wall is real resistance and breakouts through it run shorter; a FAR call wall breaks more often (a volatility tell). Put walls show no measurable support.

DTE≤7 · Walls use the front expiry · post-close snapshot

🕰Analog Days

Prior close profile (2026-08-24, QQQ $706.32): session -1.00% · 5-day -3.23% · vs 200-DMA +8.1% · below 52-week high -5.3% · RSI2=13 · VIX 15.8 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.70)

Closest analog 2025-12-16 (distance 0.44): session +0.20% · 5-day -2.13% · vs 200-DMA +11.0% · below 52-week high -3.8% · RSI2=23 · VIX 16.5 · policy rate 3.64% (1-year -0.94)
What followed: next day -1.85% · 5-day +1.69% · 20-day +1.64%

Side by side | 2026-08-24 (prior session) -1.00% ↔ 2025-12-16 +0.20%; today maps to the day after 2025-12-16, which was -1.85% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)

Analog (top 5)	Distance	That day	Next day	5 days on	RSI2 then	20 days on
2025-12-16	0.44	+0.20%	-1.85%	+1.69%	23	+1.64%
2019-09-23	0.44	-0.16%	-1.33%	-0.89%	10	+1.52%
2025-11-07	0.45	-0.32%	+2.21%	-0.14%	13	+2.38%
2018-03-21	0.46	-0.44%	-2.47%	-5.79%	14	-1.20%
2024-11-04	0.47	-0.29%	+1.28%	+5.73%	30	+6.35%

Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean +0.36% (up 60% of the time, range -2.5% to +2.9%) · 5-day +1.34% (75%) · 20-day +2.11% (80%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.

25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-08-24 (6899 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.

📅Calendar

Here are the major US economic data releases and Federal Reserve events between 2026-08-25 and 2026-08-30 (ET) that may impact the broader stock market:

08-25 Tue ET time varies - Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium — This annual symposium brings together central bankers and policymakers to discuss global economic trends and monetary policy. Remarks from the Federal Reserve Chair are highly anticipated and can move markets.
08-26 Wed 8:30 AM ET — GDP (Second Estimate) — This report provides an updated look at the overall health of the US economy.
08-26 Wed 8:30 AM ET — Personal Income and Outlays (PCE Inflation) — This release includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.

🎯9:00 Forecast

9:00 premarket price$712.11 (vs prior close +0.83%, Prev close $706.28)

LeanBase — no strong signal, lean is small

P(close above 9:00 price)56%

Expected close$712.2

Expected high$716.4

Expected low$707.6

Expected range1.23% (0.75–2.08%)

Gatebase

Features used5 (Missing inputs: oi)

Model versionv0.3-gates · 2026-08-25 09:06:55 ET

Posted at 09:05 ET, scored at 16:45 ET. The ledger keeps every call — misses included.

✅Scorecard

Called	Actual
P(up) 56% · close $712.2 · range $707.6–$716.4	Open $711.22 · High $714.04 · Low $707.45 · Close $710.72 (Close vs 9:00 price -0.20%)

Direction✗ miss

Range inside band✓ hit 0.93% vs 0.75–2.08%

Expected high touchedno

Expected low touchedyes

Brier0.310 Brier (naive) 0.310

Close error0.21% Naive error 0.20%

Running tally · 11 calls scored · direction hit rate 2/11 · avg Brier vs naive 0.292 / 0.289

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

🌡Sentiment

NAAIM Manager Equity Exposure · week of 2026-07-29

79.7 ↓ from 84

All-history band: Neutral-bullish (the usual range) (range roughly −5 to 120)
1-year percentile 19.2% · since-inception percentile 31.2% (144 weeks)

How to read: a high percentile means managers are broadly fully invested with little room to add; a low one means broad caution and room to buy back in. Contrarian predictive power is weak (4-week horizon) and the sample has never been tested through a bear market — atmosphere only, not a signal.

AAII Retail Sentiment Survey · week of 2026-08-19

Bull−bear spread -4.4 bulls 35.5% / bears 39.9%

39-year percentile 27.5% · 5-year percentile 45.8% (the distribution has shifted down; use the 5-year figure)

Historically a contrarian indicator, and it takes 3–4 weeks to work, not 1–2. Since 2020 the effect has broken down and at times inverted — low-weight atmosphere only.

CNN Fear & Greed Index · live

58.8 greed

prior close 55 · one week ago 55.1 · one month ago 41.3
Percentile since 2022 65.5%

Backtested: no predictive power for same-day or next-day direction (its components are that day's price action, which makes it circular). Forward absolute returns are positive from every bucket; only the magnitude differs — pure atmosphere.

CBOE Equity Put/Call · 2026-08-24

0.68 index P/C 1 · total P/C 0.91

Percentile since 2023 74% (median over the same period 0.59)
Low = retail crowding into calls (speculative heat); high = heavy put demand (defensive)

Backtested: an extremely low P/C (call mania) does not mark tops — forward returns are in fact slightly positive, the opposite of the popular claim. Atmosphere only.

All four have been backtested: none carries tradable predictive power for same-day or next-day direction. They describe the sentiment backdrop and are not a basis for buying or selling.

🧭Macro Score

Total 53.5 / 87 · Posture: 数据不全 (2026-08-25)

Category	Value	Score	Note
Macro		12 / 20
└ GDP growth (ann.)	1.5	3 / 5
└ Core CPI YoY	—	null / 5
└ Unemployment	4.1	5 / 5
└ PMI (mfg+svc avg)	54.9	4 / 5
Monetary policy		6 / 25
└ Real rate (FFR − core CPI)	—	null / 8	neutral zone 0–1.5%
└ Policy stance & guidance	model judgment	3 / 10	model judgment
└ Communication vs market	model judgment	3 / 7	model judgment
Earnings		16 / 20
└ EPS growth YoY %	50.4	5 / 5
└ Forward P/E	20	4 / 8	10-yr avg ≈ 17–18
└ Earnings quality	model judgment	4 / 4	model judgment
└ EPS beat rate %	86	3 / 3
Liquidity		8 / 10
└ IG credit spread OAS %	0.81	4 / 4
└ M2 YoY %	2.11	2 / 3	overheating also penalised
└ Financial conditions	—	2 / 3	proxied by spreads + M2
Policy & geopolitics		3 / 15
└ Domestic policy risk	model judgment	1.5 / 7.5	model judgment
└ Geopolitical risk	model judgment	1.5 / 7.5	model judgment
Sentiment & technicals		8.5 / 10
└ VIX regime	15.85	3 / 4	low = seller regime, high = oversold signals active; not directional
└ Trend (200-day, SPY+QQQ)	2	3 / 3	the only trend state that passed FDR
└ Flows / rotation / volume	model judgment	2.5 / 3	volume ratio + rotation dispersion + breadth; conditions, not direction

Weeks-to-months backdrop, not an overnight signal. Being forward-tested; it does not drive any order.

Full report: Morning report · Evening report

Research output, not investment advice.