Daily Forecast 2026-09-18

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📋 Morning Board 📏 Range Forecast Γ Gamma Map 🕰 Analog Days 📅 Calendar 🎯 9:00 Forecast ✅ Scorecard 🌡 Sentiment 🧭 Macro Score

📋Morning Board

Symbol	Prev close	Change	VIX / VXN (pct)	GEX ($B/1%)	Expected range
QQQ	$716.92	+1.73%	20.0 (10th pctile)	+2.75B flip 715.8	1.02% (0.62–1.72)
SPY	$762.60	+1.13%	15.4 (15th pctile)	-0.94B flip 762.3	0.69% (0.41–1.22)

QQQ RSI(2)86 stretched

QQQ vs 200-day+8.3%

QQQ GammaDealers long gamma (+$2.75B per 1% move), flip 715.8 sits 0.5% below spot

How to read this · VIX

σ Volatility Indices (VIX / VXN)

VIX = S&P 500 30-day implied volatility (maps to SPY); VXN = the same measure for the Nasdaq 100 (maps to QQQ). Percentile = share of the past year (252 trading days) that closed below the current value.

Index	Current	Percentile	1-year range	As of
VIX · SPY	15.44	15% pctile · Depressed (complacency)	13.5 ─ median 17.2 ─ 31.1	2026-09-17
VXN · QQQ	19.96	10% pctile · Depressed (complacency)	17.2 ─ median 23.3 ─ 33.5	2026-09-17

CBOE official daily closes (VIX from 1990, VXN from 2009). These are closing values, not intraday — the morning brief uses the prior session's close and the evening review the current close, so the series stays consistent with history with no point-in-time bias.

📏Range Forecast

Today's Range Forecast (pre-open)

⚠ 数据陈旧：本预测基于 2026-09-17 的日线（距今约 21 天）。落盘日线可能未更新（检查 PostClose_Rebuild 任务），下面的数字不可用于今日决策。

This section answers one question only: how far price is likely to swing between the open and the close (high minus low). It does not forecast direction — the directional version has been backtested repeatedly and produced no reliable signal.

Symbol	Tier	Forecast day range	80% interval	vs last 20d
SPY	Low	0.69%	0.41% ~ 1.22%	Slightly above normal
Today is likely to be calmer than usual — price has less room to move. Selling options is favoured and normal strike width is fine. Long straddles are unfavourable today: you need a big move just to break even. Stops can be tightened somewhat.
QQQ	Low	1.02%	0.62% ~ 1.72%	About normal
Today is likely to be calmer than usual — price has less room to move. Selling options is favoured and normal strike width is fine. Long straddles are unfavourable today: you need a big move just to break even. Stops can be tightened somewhat.

How to read this table
· Forecast day range: how far today's high is from today's low, as a percentage of the current price.For example 0.69% above means the day's high and low are expected to differ by about 0.69%.
· 80% interval:on 8 days out of 10 the actual value lands between 0.41% and 1.22%; on the other 2 it falls outside. That is the honest error band — the real value may be half the forecast, or half again as large.
· Tier: days are bucketed into large / medium / small. When it says “High”, about 6 times out of 10 the day really is large, versus barely 3 in 10 for a blind guess. Good enough to size positions and choose strike width; not good enough to compute precise P&L.
· “Tier” and “vs last 20d” can look contradictory, and that is normal: the tier compares against the past several years, the right-hand column against the last 20 days. “High tier but about normal” means the recent period has itself been high-volatility — today is not exceptional, but the overall environment is jumpy and position sizing should stay cautious.
· A 10:00 intraday revision email follows, folding in the actual range and volume from the first half hour; the forecast gets sharper then.

Technical: out-of-sample R² SPY 0.51 / QQQ 0.48, model refits on every run.

ΓGamma Map

Symbol	Spot	Net GEX ($B per 1%)	Regime	Zero-gamma flip	Call wall	Put wall	Pin
QQQ	$722.05	+1.09B	Dealers long gamma	$716.74 (spot above)	$724 +0.27% · OI 3,506	$715 -0.98% · OI 20,775	$715
SPY	$762.98	+0.49B	Dealers long gamma	$762.31 (spot above)	$770 +0.92% · OI 31,504	$755 -1.05% · OI 13,435	$770

Positive gamma: dealers sell rallies and buy dips, damping moves. Negative gamma: dealers chase, amplifying moves.

Walls are gamma-weighted, not raw OI. 503-day test: a NEAR call wall is real resistance and breakouts through it run shorter; a FAR call wall breaks more often (a volatility tell). Put walls show no measurable support.

DTE≤7 · Walls use the front expiry · post-close snapshot

🕰Analog Days

Prior close profile (2026-09-17, QQQ $716.92): session +1.73% · 5-day +1.16% · vs 200-DMA +8.3% · below 52-week high -3.9% · RSI2=86 · VIX 15.4 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.70)

Closest analog 2019-10-11 (distance 0.40): session +1.29% · 5-day +1.22% · vs 200-DMA +5.5% · below 52-week high -2.1% · RSI2=90 · VIX 15.6 · policy rate 1.82% (1-year -0.36)
What followed: next day -0.01% · 5-day +0.30% · 20-day +5.30%

Side by side | 2026-09-17 (prior session) +1.73% ↔ 2019-10-11 +1.29%; today maps to the day after 2019-10-11, which was -0.01% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)

Analog (top 5)	Distance	That day	Next day	5 days on	RSI2 then	20 days on
2019-10-11	0.40	+1.29%	-0.01%	+0.30%	90	+5.30%
2025-08-22	0.54	+1.54%	-0.29%	-0.27%	73	+5.29%
2018-09-20	0.57	+1.11%	-0.55%	+0.60%	85	-6.25%
2025-11-10	0.57	+2.21%	-0.27%	-3.14%	75	+0.29%
2025-01-17	0.58	+1.69%	+0.59%	-1.44%	83	+3.38%

Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean +0.19% (up 50% of the time, range -0.5% to +1.6%) · 5-day +0.37% (65%) · 20-day +1.20% (70%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.

25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-09-17 (6916 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.

📅Calendar

No major economic data this week

🎯9:00 Forecast

9:00 premarket price$717.79 (vs prior close +0.13%, Prev close $716.89)

LeanBase — no strong signal, lean is small

P(close above 9:00 price)56%

Expected close$717.9

Expected high$721.3

Expected low$714.0

Expected range1.02% (0.62–1.72%)

Gatebase

Features used5 (Missing inputs: oi)

Model versionv0.3-gates · 2026-09-18 09:03:37 ET

Posted at 09:05 ET, scored at 16:45 ET. The ledger keeps every call — misses included.

✅Scorecard

Called	Actual
P(up) 56% · close $717.9 · range $714.0–$721.3	Open $718.83 · High $721.73 · Low $715.08 · Close $721.45 (Close vs 9:00 price +0.51%)

Direction✓ hit

Range inside band✓ hit 0.93% vs 0.62–1.72%

Expected high touchedyes

Expected low touchedno

Brier0.196 Brier (naive) 0.196

Close error0.50% Naive error 0.51%

Running tally · 40 calls scored · direction hit rate 18/40 · avg Brier vs naive 0.259 / 0.259

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

🌡Sentiment

AAII Retail Sentiment Survey · week of 2026-09-16

Bull−bear spread -24.5 bulls 28.8% / bears 53.3%

Spread < −20 — the one extreme-bearish bucket that has historically carried any signal (4-week horizon)
39-year percentile 5.1% · 5-year percentile 13.5% (the distribution has shifted down; use the 5-year figure)

Historically a contrarian indicator, and it takes 3–4 weeks to work, not 1–2. Since 2020 the effect has broken down and at times inverted — low-weight atmosphere only.

CNN Fear & Greed Index · live

29.1 fear

prior close 28.7 · one week ago 32.7 · one month ago 54.6
Percentile since 2022 19.1%

Backtested: no predictive power for same-day or next-day direction (its components are that day's price action, which makes it circular). Forward absolute returns are positive from every bucket; only the magnitude differs — pure atmosphere.

CBOE Equity Put/Call · 2026-09-17

0.52 index P/C 1.07 · total P/C 0.79

Percentile since 2023 15.6% (median over the same period 0.59)
Low = retail crowding into calls (speculative heat); high = heavy put demand (defensive)

Backtested: an extremely low P/C (call mania) does not mark tops — forward returns are in fact slightly positive, the opposite of the popular claim. Atmosphere only.

All four have been backtested: none carries tradable predictive power for same-day or next-day direction. They describe the sentiment backdrop and are not a basis for buying or selling.

🧭Macro Score

Total 66 / 100 · Posture: Neutral (2026-09-18)

Category	Value	Score	Note
Macro		18 / 20
└ GDP growth (ann.)	1.5	3 / 5
└ Core CPI YoY	2.4	5 / 5
└ Unemployment	4.1	5 / 5
└ PMI (mfg+svc avg)	55	5 / 5
Monetary policy		12 / 25
└ Real rate (FFR − core CPI)	1.6	5 / 8	neutral zone 0–1.5%
└ Policy stance & guidance	model judgment	3 / 10	model judgment
└ Communication vs market	model judgment	4 / 7	model judgment
Earnings		16.5 / 20
└ EPS growth YoY %	28.7	5 / 5
└ Forward P/E	19.1	5 / 8	10-yr avg ≈ 17–18
└ Earnings quality	model judgment	4 / 4	model judgment
└ EPS beat rate %	78	2.5 / 3
Liquidity		9 / 10
└ IG credit spread OAS %	0.8	4 / 4
└ M2 YoY %	5.41	3 / 3	overheating also penalised
└ Financial conditions	—	2 / 3	proxied by spreads + M2
Policy & geopolitics		3 / 15
└ Domestic policy risk	model judgment	1.5 / 7.5	model judgment
└ Geopolitical risk	model judgment	1.5 / 7.5	model judgment
Sentiment & technicals		7.5 / 10
└ VIX regime	15.44	3 / 4	low = seller regime, high = oversold signals active; not directional
└ Trend (200-day, SPY+QQQ)	2	3 / 3	the only trend state that passed FDR
└ Flows / rotation / volume	model judgment	1.5 / 3	volume ratio + rotation dispersion + breadth; conditions, not direction

Weeks-to-months backdrop, not an overnight signal. Being forward-tested; it does not drive any order.

Full report: Morning report · Evening report

Research output, not investment advice.