Daily Forecast 2026-09-29

📋 Morning Board 📏 Range Forecast Γ Gamma Map 🕰 Analog Days 🎯 9:00 Forecast ✅ Scorecard 🌡 Sentiment

📋Morning Board

Symbol	Prev close	Change	VIX / VXN (pct)	GEX ($B/1%)	Expected range
QQQ	$736.53	-1.07%	22.1 (35th pctile)	-0.39B flip 739.3	1.16% (0.70–1.95)
SPY	$765.61	-0.74%	16.1 (28th pctile)	-0.13B flip 766.8	0.72% (0.42–1.26)

QQQ RSI(2)25 neutral

QQQ vs 200-day+10.6%

QQQ GammaDealers short gamma ($-0.39B per 1% move), flip 739.3 sits -0.1% above spot

How to read this · VIX

σ Volatility Indices (VIX / VXN)

VIX = S&P 500 30-day implied volatility (maps to SPY); VXN = the same measure for the Nasdaq 100 (maps to QQQ). Percentile = share of the past year (252 trading days) that closed below the current value.

Index	Current	Percentile	1-year range	As of
VIX · SPY	16.07	28% pctile · Near median	13.5 ─ median 17.2 ─ 31.1	2026-09-28
VXN · QQQ	22.13	35% pctile · Near median	17.2 ─ median 23.3 ─ 33.5	2026-09-28

CBOE official daily closes (VIX from 1990, VXN from 2009). These are closing values, not intraday — the morning brief uses the prior session's close and the evening review the current close, so the series stays consistent with history with no point-in-time bias.

📏Range Forecast

Today's Range Forecast (pre-open)

⚠ 数据陈旧：本预测基于 2026-09-28 的日线（距今约 10 天）。落盘日线可能未更新（检查 PostClose_Rebuild 任务），下面的数字不可用于今日决策。

This section answers one question only: how far price is likely to swing between the open and the close (high minus low). It does not forecast direction — the directional version has been backtested repeatedly and produced no reliable signal.

Symbol	Tier	Forecast day range	80% interval	vs last 20d
SPY	Low	0.72%	0.42% ~ 1.26%	About normal
Today is likely to be calmer than usual — price has less room to move. Selling options is favoured and normal strike width is fine. Long straddles are unfavourable today: you need a big move just to break even. Stops can be tightened somewhat.
QQQ	Normal	1.16%	0.70% ~ 1.95%	Slightly above normal
A normal day with no particular signal. Run your usual parameters; no volatility-driven adjustment needed.

How to read this table
· Forecast day range: how far today's high is from today's low, as a percentage of the current price.For example 0.72% above means the day's high and low are expected to differ by about 0.72%.
· 80% interval:on 8 days out of 10 the actual value lands between 0.42% and 1.26%; on the other 2 it falls outside. That is the honest error band — the real value may be half the forecast, or half again as large.
· Tier: days are bucketed into large / medium / small. When it says “High”, about 6 times out of 10 the day really is large, versus barely 3 in 10 for a blind guess. Good enough to size positions and choose strike width; not good enough to compute precise P&L.
· “Tier” and “vs last 20d” can look contradictory, and that is normal: the tier compares against the past several years, the right-hand column against the last 20 days. “High tier but about normal” means the recent period has itself been high-volatility — today is not exceptional, but the overall environment is jumpy and position sizing should stay cautious.
· A 10:00 intraday revision email follows, folding in the actual range and volume from the first half hour; the forecast gets sharper then.

Technical: out-of-sample R² SPY 0.51 / QQQ 0.48, model refits on every run.

ΓGamma Map

Symbol	Spot	Net GEX ($B per 1%)	Regime	Zero-gamma flip	Call wall	Put wall	Pin
QQQ	$740.30	+1.03B	Dealers long gamma	$737.29 (spot above)	$745 +0.63% · OI 19,220	$730 -1.39% · OI 46,520	$730
SPY	$766.10	-1.89B	Dealers short gamma	$767.94 (spot below)	$770 +0.51% · OI 10,906	$761 -0.67% · OI 48,629	—

Positive gamma: dealers sell rallies and buy dips, damping moves. Negative gamma: dealers chase, amplifying moves.

Walls are gamma-weighted, not raw OI. 503-day test: a NEAR call wall is real resistance and breakouts through it run shorter; a FAR call wall breaks more often (a volatility tell). Put walls show no measurable support.

DTE≤7 · Walls use the front expiry · post-close snapshot

🕰Analog Days

Prior close profile (2026-09-28, QQQ $736.53): session -1.07% · 5-day -0.67% · vs 200-DMA +10.6% · below 52-week high -1.5% · RSI2=25 · VIX 16.1 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.46)

Closest analog 2025-02-20 (distance 0.31): session -0.42% · 5-day +1.69% · vs 200-DMA +9.8% · below 52-week high -0.4% · RSI2=34 · VIX 15.7 · policy rate 4.33% (1-year -1.00)
What followed: next day -2.08% · 5-day -6.88% · 20-day -10.79%

Side by side | 2026-09-28 (prior session) -1.07% ↔ 2025-02-20 -0.42%; today maps to the day after 2025-02-20, which was -2.08% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)

Analog (top 5)	Distance	That day	Next day	5 days on	RSI2 then	20 days on
2025-02-20	0.31	-0.42%	-2.08%	-6.88%	34	-10.79%
2025-10-30	0.34	-1.53%	+0.48%	-2.30%	32	-1.09%
2025-08-15	0.36	-0.44%	-0.04%	-0.93%	30	+2.48%
2025-07-01	0.36	-0.84%	+0.70%	+1.69%	41	+3.84%
2017-09-05	0.39	-0.90%	+0.30%	+1.06%	31	+0.83%

Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean -0.08% (up 60% of the time, range -2.5% to +1.1%) · 5-day -0.51% (50%) · 20-day +0.98% (70%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.

25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-09-28 (6923 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.

🎯9:00 Forecast

9:00 premarket price$738.88 (vs prior close +0.32%, Prev close $736.53)

LeanBase — no strong signal, lean is small

P(close above 9:00 price)56%

Expected close$739.0

Expected high$743.0

Expected low$734.5

Expected range1.16% (0.70–1.95%)

Gatebase

Features used5 (Missing inputs: oi)

Model versionv0.3-gates · 2026-09-29 09:02:20 ET

Posted at 09:05 ET, scored at 16:45 ET. The ledger keeps every call — misses included.

✅Scorecard

Called	Actual
P(up) 56% · close $739.0 · range $734.5–$743.0	Open $740.14 · High $740.58 · Low $735.34 · Close $737.93 (Close vs 9:00 price -0.13%)

Direction✗ miss

Range inside band✓ hit 0.71% vs 0.70–1.95%

Expected high touchedno

Expected low touchedno

Brier0.310 Brier (naive) 0.310

Close error0.14% Naive error 0.13%

Running tally · 40 calls scored · direction hit rate 18/40 · avg Brier vs naive 0.259 / 0.259

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

🌡Sentiment

AAII Retail Sentiment Survey · week of 2026-09-23

Bull−bear spread -15.4 bulls 32.7% / bears 48.1%

39-year percentile 11.8% · 5-year percentile 26.2% (the distribution has shifted down; use the 5-year figure)

Historically a contrarian indicator, and it takes 3–4 weeks to work, not 1–2. Since 2020 the effect has broken down and at times inverted — low-weight atmosphere only.

CNN Fear & Greed Index · live

31.6 fear

prior close 33.8 · one week ago 35 · one month ago 53.7
Percentile since 2022 22%

Backtested: no predictive power for same-day or next-day direction (its components are that day's price action, which makes it circular). Forward absolute returns are positive from every bucket; only the magnitude differs — pure atmosphere.

CBOE Equity Put/Call · 2026-09-28

0.58 index P/C 0.97 · total P/C 0.88

Percentile since 2023 40.4% (median over the same period 0.59)
Low = retail crowding into calls (speculative heat); high = heavy put demand (defensive)

Backtested: an extremely low P/C (call mania) does not mark tops — forward returns are in fact slightly positive, the opposite of the popular claim. Atmosphere only.

All four have been backtested: none carries tradable predictive power for same-day or next-day direction. They describe the sentiment backdrop and are not a basis for buying or selling.

Full report: Morning report · Evening report

Research output, not investment advice.