AAII Retail Sentiment Survey · week of 2026-09-23
Bull−bear spread -15.4 bulls 32.7% / bears 48.1%
39-year percentile 11.8% · 5-year percentile 26.2% (the distribution has shifted down; use the 5-year figure)
Historically a contrarian indicator, and it takes 3–4 weeks to work, not 1–2. Since 2020 the effect has broken down and at times inverted — low-weight atmosphere only.
CNN Fear & Greed Index · live
44.6 fear
prior close 47.2 · one week ago 30.3 · one month ago 45.2
Percentile since 2022 42.2%
Backtested: no predictive power for same-day or next-day direction (its components are that day's price action, which makes it circular). Forward absolute returns are positive from every bucket; only the magnitude differs — pure atmosphere.
CBOE Equity Put/Call · 2026-10-06
0.57 index P/C 0.88 · total P/C 0.82
Percentile since 2023 35.9% (median over the same period 0.59)
Low = retail crowding into calls (speculative heat); high = heavy put demand (defensive)
Backtested: an extremely low P/C (call mania) does not mark tops — forward returns are in fact slightly positive, the opposite of the popular claim. Atmosphere only.
All four have been backtested: none carries tradable predictive power for same-day or next-day direction. They describe the sentiment backdrop and are not a basis for buying or selling.