AAII Retail Sentiment Survey · week of 2026-10-21
Bull−bear spread -8.9 bulls 36.9% / bears 45.8%
39-year percentile 20.5% · 5-year percentile 38.1% (the distribution has shifted down; use the 5-year figure)
Historically a contrarian indicator, and it takes 3–4 weeks to work, not 1–2. Since 2020 the effect has broken down and at times inverted — low-weight atmosphere only.
CNN Fear & Greed Index · live
27.1 fear
prior close 21 · one week ago 20.8 · one month ago 36.9
Percentile since 2022 16.4%
Backtested: no predictive power for same-day or next-day direction (its components are that day's price action, which makes it circular). Forward absolute returns are positive from every bucket; only the magnitude differs — pure atmosphere.
CBOE Equity Put/Call · 2026-10-23
0.67 index P/C 1.1 · total P/C 0.93
Percentile since 2023 71.8% (median over the same period 0.59)
Low = retail crowding into calls (speculative heat); high = heavy put demand (defensive)
Backtested: an extremely low P/C (call mania) does not mark tops — forward returns are in fact slightly positive, the opposite of the popular claim. Atmosphere only.
All four have been backtested: none carries tradable predictive power for same-day or next-day direction. They describe the sentiment backdrop and are not a basis for buying or selling.