A 100-point backdrop score across growth, policy, earnings, liquidity, risk and technicals.
| Category | Value | Score | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | 16.5 / 20 | ||
| β GDP growth (ann.) | 2.5 | 4 / 5 | |
| β Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 3.5 / 5 | |
| β Unemployment | 4.2 | 5 / 5 | |
| β PMI (mfg+svc avg) | 54.7 | 4 / 5 | |
| Monetary policy | 14 / 25 | ||
| β Real rate (FFR β core CPI) | 1.15 | 8 / 8 | neutral zone 0β1.5% |
| β Policy stance & guidance | model judgment | 3 / 10 | model judgment |
| β Communication vs market | model judgment | 3 / 7 | model judgment |
| Earnings | 15 / 20 | ||
| β EPS growth YoY % | 29.5 | 5 / 5 | |
| β Forward P/E | 19.4 | 5 / 8 | 10-yr avg β 17β18 |
| β Earnings quality | model judgment | 2 / 4 | model judgment |
| β EPS beat rate % | 83 | 3 / 3 | |
| Liquidity | 9 / 10 | ||
| β IG credit spread OAS % | 0.82 | 4 / 4 | |
| β M2 YoY % | 5.4 | 3 / 3 | overheating also penalised |
| β Financial conditions | β | 2 / 3 | proxied by spreads + M2 |
| Policy & geopolitics | 0 / 15 | ||
| β Domestic policy risk | model judgment | 0 / 7.5 | model judgment |
| β Geopolitical risk | model judgment | 0 / 7.5 | model judgment |
| Sentiment & technicals | 7.8 / 10 | ||
| β VIX regime | 16.91 | 3 / 4 | low = seller regime, high = oversold signals active; not directional |
| β Trend (200-day, SPY+QQQ) | 2 | 3 / 3 | the only trend state that passed FDR |
| β Flows / rotation / volume | model judgment | 1.75 / 2 | volume ratio + rotation dispersion + breadth; conditions, not direction |
Weeks-to-months backdrop, not an overnight signal. Being forward-tested; it does not drive any order.
Full report: Morning report Β· Evening report
Research output, not investment advice.