Daily Forecast 2026-08-14

9:00 premarket price$734.07 (vs prior close +0.27%, Prev close $732.06)

LeanBase — no strong signal, lean is small

P(close above 9:00 price)56%

Expected close$734.2

Expected high$738.0

Expected low$730.0

Expected range1.09% (0.66–1.84%)

Gatebase

Features used5 (Missing inputs: oi)

Model versionv0.3-gates · 2026-08-14 09:13:35 ET

Posted at 09:05 ET, scored at 16:45 ET. The ledger keeps every call — misses included.

✅Scorecard

Called	Actual
P(up) 56% · close $734.2 · range $730.0–$738.0	Open $733.41 · High $734.39 · Low $728.32 · Close $731.07 (Close vs 9:00 price -0.41%)

Direction✗ miss

Range inside band✓ hit 0.83% vs 0.66–1.84%

Expected high touchedno

Expected low touchedyes

Brier0.310 Brier (naive) 0.310

Close error0.42% Naive error 0.41%

Running tally · 11 calls scored · direction hit rate 2/11 · avg Brier vs naive 0.292 / 0.289

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

Research output, not investment advice.