✅Scorecard 2026-08-14

Every 9:00 forecast scored against the actual session, plus the running tally.

Called	Actual
P(up) 56% · close $734.2 · range $730.0–$738.0	Open $733.41 · High $734.39 · Low $728.32 · Close $731.07 (Close vs 9:00 price -0.41%)

Direction✗ miss

Range inside band✓ hit 0.83% vs 0.66–1.84%

Expected high touchedno

Expected low touchedyes

Brier0.310 Brier (naive) 0.310

Close error0.42% Naive error 0.41%

Running tally · 11 calls scored · direction hit rate 2/11 · avg Brier vs naive 0.292 / 0.289

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

Archive 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-21 · 2026-08-20 · 2026-08-19 · 2026-08-18 · 2026-08-17

Research output, not investment advice.