✅Scorecard 2026-08-26

Every 9:00 forecast scored against the actual session, plus the running tally.

Called	Actual
P(up) 56% · close $707.8 · range $703.6–$711.6	Open $708.41 · High $713.02 · Low $707.97 · Close $711.37 (Close vs 9:00 price +0.52%)

Direction✓ hit

Range inside band✓ hit 0.71% vs 0.68–1.90%

Expected high touchedyes

Expected low touchedno

Brier0.196 Brier (naive) 0.196

Close error0.51% Naive error 0.52%

Running tally · 11 calls scored · direction hit rate 2/11 · avg Brier vs naive 0.292 / 0.289

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

Archive 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-21 · 2026-08-20 · 2026-08-19 · 2026-08-18 · 2026-08-17 · 2026-08-14

Research output, not investment advice.