✅Scorecard 2026-10-16

Every 9:00 forecast scored against the actual session, plus the running tally.

Called	Actual
P(up) 56% · close $727.0 · range $722.5–$731.0	Open $725.52 · High $725.96 · Low $707.23 · Close $709.80 (Close vs 9:00 price -2.35%)

Direction✗ miss

Range inside band✗ miss 2.57% vs 0.71–1.96%

Expected high touchedno

Expected low touchedyes

Brier0.310 Brier (naive) 0.310

Close error2.36% Naive error 2.35%

Running tally · 46 calls scored · direction hit rate 20/46 · avg Brier vs naive 0.261 / 0.261

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

Archive 2026-10-15 · 2026-10-14 · 2026-10-13 · 2026-10-12 · 2026-10-09 · 2026-10-08 · 2026-10-07 · 2026-10-06 · 2026-10-05 · 2026-10-02 · 2026-10-01 · 2026-09-30 · 2026-09-29 · 2026-09-28 · 2026-09-25 · 2026-09-24 · 2026-09-23 · 2026-09-22 · 2026-09-21 · 2026-09-18

Research output, not investment advice.