✅Scorecard 2026-10-15

Every 9:00 forecast scored against the actual session, plus the running tally.

Called	Actual
P(up) 56% · close $720.3 · range $715.4–$724.7	Open $718.55 · High $729.43 · Low $715.43 · Close $728.00 (Close vs 9:00 price +1.08%)

Direction✓ hit

Range inside band✓ hit 1.92% vs 0.78–2.17%

Expected high touchedyes

Expected low touchedno

Brier0.196 Brier (naive) 0.196

Close error1.07% Naive error 1.08%

Running tally · 46 calls scored · direction hit rate 20/46 · avg Brier vs naive 0.261 / 0.261

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

Archive 2026-10-16 · 2026-10-14 · 2026-10-13 · 2026-10-12 · 2026-10-09 · 2026-10-08 · 2026-10-07 · 2026-10-06 · 2026-10-05 · 2026-10-02 · 2026-10-01 · 2026-09-30 · 2026-09-29 · 2026-09-28 · 2026-09-25 · 2026-09-24 · 2026-09-23 · 2026-09-22 · 2026-09-21 · 2026-09-18

Research output, not investment advice.