✅Scorecard 2026-10-14

Every 9:00 forecast scored against the actual session, plus the running tally.

Called	Actual
P(up) 57% · close $739.2 · range $734.8–$742.5	Open $737.98 · High $740.53 · Low $726.39 · Close $728.95 (Close vs 9:00 price -1.32%)

Direction✗ miss

Range inside band✗ miss 1.90% vs 0.64–1.76%

Expected high touchedno

Expected low touchedyes

Brier0.322 Brier (naive) 0.310

Close error1.38% Naive error 1.32%

Running tally · 46 calls scored · direction hit rate 20/46 · avg Brier vs naive 0.261 / 0.261

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

Archive 2026-10-16 · 2026-10-15 · 2026-10-13 · 2026-10-12 · 2026-10-09 · 2026-10-08 · 2026-10-07 · 2026-10-06 · 2026-10-05 · 2026-10-02 · 2026-10-01 · 2026-09-30 · 2026-09-29 · 2026-09-28 · 2026-09-25 · 2026-09-24 · 2026-09-23 · 2026-09-22 · 2026-09-21 · 2026-09-18

Research output, not investment advice.