✅Scorecard 2026-08-27

Every 9:00 forecast scored against the actual session, plus the running tally.

Called	Actual
P(up) 56% · close $716.9 · range $712.8–$720.6	Open $716.93 · High $721.35 · Low $714.52 · Close $721.11 (Close vs 9:00 price +0.60%)

Direction✓ hit

Range inside band✓ hit 0.96% vs 0.66–1.82%

Expected high touchedyes

Expected low touchedno

Brier0.196 Brier (naive) 0.196

Close error0.59% Naive error 0.60%

Running tally · 11 calls scored · direction hit rate 2/11 · avg Brier vs naive 0.292 / 0.289

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

Archive 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-21 · 2026-08-20 · 2026-08-19 · 2026-08-18 · 2026-08-17 · 2026-08-14

Research output, not investment advice.