Scorecard 2026-08-20

Every 9:00 forecast scored against the actual session, plus the running tally.

CalledActual
P(up) 56% · close $null · range $null–$nullOpen $712.09 · High $714.94 · Low $708.52 · Close $710.93 (Close vs 9:00 price )
Direction✗ miss
Range inside band
Expected high touched
Expected low touched
Brier0.310 Brier (naive) 0.310
Close errornull% Naive error null%
Running tally · 11 calls scored · direction hit rate 2/11 · avg Brier vs naive 0.292 / 0.289

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

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Archive 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-28 · 2026-08-27 · 2026-08-26 · 2026-08-25 · 2026-08-24 · 2026-08-21 · 2026-08-19 · 2026-08-18 · 2026-08-17 · 2026-08-14

Research output, not investment advice.