Daily Forecast 2026-08-24

📋Morning Board

Symbol	Prev close	Change	VIX / VXN (pct)	GEX ($B/1%)	Expected range
QQQ	$713.44	+0.35%	22.0 (36th pctile)	-0.83B flip 712.6	1.11% (0.68–1.88)
SPY	$765.72	+0.41%	15.1 (10th pctile)	-5.36B flip 768.7	0.69% (0.40–1.20)

QQQ RSI(2)37 neutral

QQQ vs 200-day+9.3%

QQQ GammaDealers short gamma ($-0.83B per 1% move), flip 712.6 sits -0.5% above spot

How to read this · VIX

σ Volatility Indices (VIX / VXN)

VIX = S&P 500 30-day implied volatility (maps to SPY); VXN = the same measure for the Nasdaq 100 (maps to QQQ). Percentile = share of the past year (252 trading days) that closed below the current value.

Index	Current	Percentile	1-year range	As of
VIX · SPY	15.13	10% pctile · Depressed (complacency)	13.5 ─ median 17.2 ─ 31.1	2026-08-21
VXN · QQQ	21.98	36% pctile · Near median	17.2 ─ median 23.3 ─ 33.5	2026-08-21

CBOE official daily closes (VIX from 1990, VXN from 2009). These are closing values, not intraday — the morning brief uses the prior session's close and the evening review the current close, so the series stays consistent with history with no point-in-time bias.

📏Range Forecast

Today's Range Forecast (pre-open)

⚠ 数据陈旧：本预测基于 2026-08-21 的日线（距今约 10 天）。落盘日线可能未更新（检查 PostClose_Rebuild 任务），下面的数字不可用于今日决策。

This section answers one question only: how far price is likely to swing between the open and the close (high minus low). It does not forecast direction — the directional version has been backtested repeatedly and produced no reliable signal.

Symbol	Tier	Forecast day range	80% interval	vs last 20d
SPY	Low	0.69%	0.40% ~ 1.20%	Slightly below normal
Today is likely to be calmer than usual — price has less room to move. Selling options is favoured and normal strike width is fine. Long straddles are unfavourable today: you need a big move just to break even. Stops can be tightened somewhat.
QQQ	Normal	1.11%	0.68% ~ 1.88%	Slightly below normal
A normal day with no particular signal. Run your usual parameters; no volatility-driven adjustment needed.

How to read this table
· Forecast day range: how far today's high is from today's low, as a percentage of the current price.For example 0.69% above means the day's high and low are expected to differ by about 0.69%.
· 80% interval:on 8 days out of 10 the actual value lands between 0.40% and 1.20%; on the other 2 it falls outside. That is the honest error band — the real value may be half the forecast, or half again as large.
· Tier: days are bucketed into large / medium / small. When it says “High”, about 6 times out of 10 the day really is large, versus barely 3 in 10 for a blind guess. Good enough to size positions and choose strike width; not good enough to compute precise P&L.
· “Tier” and “vs last 20d” can look contradictory, and that is normal: the tier compares against the past several years, the right-hand column against the last 20 days. “High tier but about normal” means the recent period has itself been high-volatility — today is not exceptional, but the overall environment is jumpy and position sizing should stay cautious.
· A 10:00 intraday revision email follows, folding in the actual range and volume from the first half hour; the forecast gets sharper then.

Technical: out-of-sample R² SPY 0.51 / QQQ 0.49, model refits on every run.

ΓGamma Map

Symbol	Spot	Net GEX ($B per 1%)	Regime	Zero-gamma flip	Call wall	Put wall	Pin
QQQ	$704.66	-0.08B	Dealers short gamma	$707.58 (spot below)	$710 +0.76% · OI 766	$700 -0.66% · OI 2,007	—
SPY	$763.14	-2.01B	Dealers short gamma	$774.32 (spot below)	$765 +0.24% · OI 2,329	$762 -0.15% · OI 1,317	—

Positive gamma: dealers sell rallies and buy dips, damping moves. Negative gamma: dealers chase, amplifying moves.

Walls are gamma-weighted, not raw OI. 503-day test: a NEAR call wall is real resistance and breakouts through it run shorter; a FAR call wall breaks more often (a volatility tell). Put walls show no measurable support.

DTE≤7 · Walls use the front expiry · post-close snapshot

🕰Analog Days

Prior close profile (2026-08-21, QQQ $713.44): session +0.35% · 5-day -2.41% · vs 200-DMA +9.3% · below 52-week high -4.4% · RSI2=37 · VIX 15.1 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.70)

Closest analog 2024-11-18 (distance 0.44): session +0.69% · 5-day -2.69% · vs 200-DMA +8.0% · below 52-week high -2.8% · RSI2=34 · VIX 15.6 · policy rate 4.58% (1-year -0.75)
What followed: next day +0.69% · 5-day +1.31% · 20-day +7.16%

Side by side | 2026-08-21 (prior session) +0.35% ↔ 2024-11-18 +0.69%; today maps to the day after 2024-11-18, which was +0.69% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)

Analog (top 5)	Distance	That day	Next day	5 days on	RSI2 then	20 days on
2024-11-18	0.44	+0.69%	+0.69%	+1.31%	34	+7.16%
2018-08-16	0.47	+0.33%	+0.02%	+0.54%	42	+2.32%
2025-11-05	0.49	+0.65%	-1.86%	-0.35%	44	-0.05%
2026-01-05	0.49	+0.79%	+0.88%	+1.49%	69	-0.24%
2018-09-10	0.51	+0.34%	+0.77%	-0.21%	36	-1.47%

Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean +0.29% (up 70% of the time, range -1.9% to +1.4%) · 5-day +0.80% (70%) · 20-day +1.43% (65%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.

25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-08-21 (6898 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.

📅Calendar

Here is a list of major US economic data releases and Federal Reserve events that may impact the stock market between August 24, 2026, and August 29, 2026, sorted by date:

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 26
PCE Price Index 08:30 AM ET – This is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, and any significant deviation from expectations can influence interest rate outlook.
Core PCE Price Index 08:30 AM ET – This excludes volatile food and energy prices, providing a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends.
GDP (Second Estimate) 08:30 AM ET – This provides an updated look at the economic growth rate for the previous quarter.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 27
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium ALL DAY ET – Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to speak on monetary policy, potentially signaling future rate decisions.

FRIDAY, AUGUST 28
Fed Chair Warsh speech 07:30 PM ET – Remarks from the Federal Reserve Chair at the Jackson Hole Symposium can provide significant insights into the Fed's monetary policy stance.

🎯9:00 Forecast

9:00 premarket price$709.00 (vs prior close -0.62%, Prev close $713.41)

LeanLEAN

P(close above 9:00 price)57%

Expected close$709.4

Expected high$712.8

Expected low$705.0

Expected range1.11% (0.68–1.88%)

Gategap_down_fade

Features used5 (Missing inputs: oi)

Model versionv0.3-gates · 2026-08-24 09:04:24 ET

Posted at 09:05 ET, scored at 16:45 ET. The ledger keeps every call — misses included.

✅Scorecard

Called	Actual
P(up) 57% · close $709.4 · range $705.0–$712.8	Open $709.66 · High $709.79 · Low $702.70 · Close $706.32 (Close vs 9:00 price -0.38%)

Direction✗ miss

Range inside band✓ hit 0.99% vs 0.68–1.88%

Expected high touchedno

Expected low touchedyes

Brier0.322 Brier (naive) 0.310

Close error0.44% Naive error 0.38%

Running tally · 11 calls scored · direction hit rate 2/11 · avg Brier vs naive 0.292 / 0.289

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

🌡Sentiment

NAAIM Manager Equity Exposure · week of 2026-07-29

79.7 ↓ from 84

All-history band: Neutral-bullish (the usual range) (range roughly −5 to 120)
1-year percentile 19.2% · since-inception percentile 31.2% (144 weeks)

How to read: a high percentile means managers are broadly fully invested with little room to add; a low one means broad caution and room to buy back in. Contrarian predictive power is weak (4-week horizon) and the sample has never been tested through a bear market — atmosphere only, not a signal.

AAII Retail Sentiment Survey · week of 2026-08-19

Bull−bear spread -4.4 bulls 35.5% / bears 39.9%

39-year percentile 27.5% · 5-year percentile 45.8% (the distribution has shifted down; use the 5-year figure)

Historically a contrarian indicator, and it takes 3–4 weeks to work, not 1–2. Since 2020 the effect has broken down and at times inverted — low-weight atmosphere only.

CNN Fear & Greed Index · live

55 greed

prior close 55.2 · one week ago 58.4 · one month ago 41.3
Percentile since 2022 58.4%

Backtested: no predictive power for same-day or next-day direction (its components are that day's price action, which makes it circular). Forward absolute returns are positive from every bucket; only the magnitude differs — pure atmosphere.

CBOE Equity Put/Call · 2026-08-21

0.51 index P/C 0.85 · total P/C 0.72

Percentile since 2023 12.4% (median over the same period 0.59)
Low = retail crowding into calls (speculative heat); high = heavy put demand (defensive)

Backtested: an extremely low P/C (call mania) does not mark tops — forward returns are in fact slightly positive, the opposite of the popular claim. Atmosphere only.

All four have been backtested: none carries tradable predictive power for same-day or next-day direction. They describe the sentiment backdrop and are not a basis for buying or selling.

🧭Macro Score

Total 72.5 / 100 · Posture: Tailwind (2026-08-24)

Category	Value	Score	Note
Macro		17 / 20
└ GDP growth (ann.)	1.5	3 / 5
└ Core CPI YoY	2.5	5 / 5
└ Unemployment	4.1	5 / 5
└ PMI (mfg+svc avg)	54.9	4 / 5
Monetary policy		14 / 25
└ Real rate (FFR − core CPI)	1.25	8 / 8	neutral zone 0–1.5%
└ Policy stance & guidance	Hawkish bias	3 / 10	model judgment
└ Communication vs market	Guidance gaps	3 / 7	model judgment
Earnings		16 / 20
└ EPS growth YoY %	50.4	5 / 5
└ Forward P/E	20	4 / 8	10-yr avg ≈ 17–18
└ Earnings quality	—	4 / 4	model judgment
└ EPS beat rate %	86	3 / 3
Liquidity		9 / 10
└ IG credit spread OAS %	0.81	4 / 4
└ M2 YoY %	5.53	3 / 3	overheating also penalised
└ Financial conditions	—	2 / 3	proxied by spreads + M2
Policy & geopolitics		7.5 / 15
└ Domestic policy risk	Policy noise	4.5 / 7.5	model judgment
└ Geopolitical risk	Iran conflict	3 / 7.5	model judgment
Sentiment & technicals		9 / 10
└ VIX regime	15.13	3 / 4	low = seller regime, high = oversold signals active; not directional
└ Trend (200-day, SPY+QQQ)	2	3 / 3	the only trend state that passed FDR
└ Flows / rotation / volume	model judgment	3 / 3	volume ratio + rotation dispersion + breadth; conditions, not direction

Weeks-to-months backdrop, not an overnight signal. Being forward-tested; it does not drive any order.