The 20 most similar historical sessions across 25 features, and what followed them.
Prior close profile (2026-10-09, QQQ $751.27): session +0.49% · 5-day +0.23% · vs 200-DMA +11.8% · below 52-week high -1.1% · RSI2=46 · VIX 14.8 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.47)
Closest analog 2025-07-08 (distance 0.34): session +0.06% · 5-day +0.13% · vs 200-DMA +9.6% · below 52-week high -0.7% · RSI2=50 · VIX 16.8 · policy rate 4.33% (1-year -1.00)
What followed: next day +0.71% ·
5-day +0.79% ·
20-day +1.44%
Side by side | 2026-10-09 (prior session) +0.49% ↔ 2025-07-08 +0.06%; today maps to the day after 2025-07-08, which was +0.71% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)
| Analog (top 5) | Distance |
That day |
Next day |
5 days on |
RSI2 then |
20 days on |
| 2025-07-08 |
0.34 |
+0.06% |
+0.71% |
+0.79% |
50 |
+1.44% |
| 2024-11-29 |
0.38 |
+0.88% |
+1.09% |
+3.28% |
72 |
+1.15% |
| 2025-09-26 |
0.39 |
+0.41% |
+0.46% |
+1.21% |
55 |
+3.55% |
| 2019-09-17 |
0.40 |
+0.48% |
-0.04% |
-2.40% |
65 |
+0.48% |
| 2025-11-03 |
0.40 |
+0.48% |
-2.03% |
-1.40% |
70 |
-1.59% |
Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean +0.31% (up 70% of the time, range -2% to +1.4%) · 5-day +0.08% (60%) · 20-day +0.33% (70%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.
25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-10-09 (6932 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.
Research output, not investment advice.