🕰Analog Days 2026-10-14

Prior close profile (2026-10-13, QQQ $743.57): session -0.33% · 5-day -2.12% · vs 200-DMA +10.4% · below 52-week high -2.1% · RSI2=16 · VIX 15.3 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.47)

Closest analog 2019-09-23 (distance 0.38): session -0.16% · 5-day -0.62% · vs 200-DMA +6.4% · below 52-week high -2.5% · RSI2=10 · VIX 14.9 · policy rate 1.90% (1-year -0.02)
What followed: next day -1.33% · 5-day -0.89% · 20-day +1.52%

Side by side | 2026-10-13 (prior session) -0.33% ↔ 2019-09-23 -0.16%; today maps to the day after 2019-09-23, which was -1.33% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)

Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean +0.03% (up 60% of the time, range -2.3% to +2.2%) · 5-day +0.98% (70%) · 20-day +2.07% (80%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.

25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-10-13 (6934 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.