🕰Analog Days 2026-11-12

Prior close profile (2026-11-11, QQQ $690.38): session +2.31% · 5-day -0.23% · vs 200-DMA +1.3% · below 52-week high -9.1% · RSI2=81 · VIX 17.5 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.24)

Closest analog 2018-04-10 (distance 0.50): session +2.21% · 5-day +2.51% · vs 200-DMA +5.2% · below 52-week high -7.4% · RSI2=80 · VIX 20.5 · policy rate 1.69% (1-year +0.78)
What followed: next day -0.58% · 5-day +3.03% · 20-day +3.01%

Side by side | 2026-11-11 (prior session) +2.31% ↔ 2018-04-10 +2.21%; today maps to the day after 2018-04-10, which was -0.58% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)

Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean +0.09% (up 50% of the time, range -2.4% to +2%) · 5-day +0.26% (70%) · 20-day +0.31% (55%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.

25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-11-11 (6955 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.