🕰Analog Days 2026-11-02

Prior close profile (2026-10-30, QQQ $690.49): session -3.47% · 5-day -1.97% · vs 200-DMA +1.6% · below 52-week high -9.1% · RSI2=8 · VIX 19.4 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.49)

Closest analog 2021-09-28 (distance 0.57): session -2.83% · 5-day -1.72% · vs 200-DMA +6.0% · below 52-week high -5.8% · RSI2=6 · VIX 23.3 · policy rate 0.08% (1-year -0.01)
What followed: next day -0.16% · 5-day -0.69% · 20-day +5.35%

Side by side | 2026-10-30 (prior session) -3.47% ↔ 2021-09-28 -2.83%; today maps to the day after 2021-09-28, which was -0.16% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)

Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean -0.08% (up 45% of the time, range -4.4% to +1.6%) · 5-day +0.14% (60%) · 20-day +0.97% (60%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.

25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-10-30 (6947 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.