🕰Analog Days 2026-10-19

Prior close profile (2026-10-16, QQQ $709.80): session -2.50% · 5-day -5.52% · vs 200-DMA +5.2% · below 52-week high -6.6% · RSI2=1 · VIX 20.0 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.47)

Closest analog 2025-02-25 (distance 0.40): session -1.26% · 5-day -4.83% · vs 200-DMA +4.6% · below 52-week high -4.9% · RSI2=1 · VIX 19.4 · policy rate 4.33% (1-year -1.00)
What followed: next day +0.24% · 5-day -3.46% · 20-day -3.87%

Side by side | 2026-10-16 (prior session) -2.50% ↔ 2025-02-25 -1.26%; today maps to the day after 2025-02-25, which was +0.24% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)

Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean +0.39% (up 80% of the time, range -4.4% to +3.7%) · 5-day +1.17% (75%) · 20-day +1.92% (75%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.

25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-10-16 (6937 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.