🕰Analog Days 2026-10-29

Prior close profile (2026-10-28, QQQ $725.61): session +0.60% · 5-day +0.06% · vs 200-DMA +6.9% · below 52-week high -4.5% · RSI2=89 · VIX 16.9 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.49)

Closest analog 2024-04-29 (distance 0.35): session +0.41% · 5-day +3.33% · vs 200-DMA +8.8% · below 52-week high -3.0% · RSI2=89 · VIX 14.7 · policy rate 5.33% (1-year +0.50)
What followed: next day -1.89% · 5-day +1.73% · 20-day +6.22%

Side by side | 2026-10-28 (prior session) +0.60% ↔ 2024-04-29 +0.41%; today maps to the day after 2024-04-29, which was -1.89% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)

Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean -0.04% (up 60% of the time, range -2.5% to +3.4%) · 5-day +0.49% (80%) · 20-day -0.42% (55%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.

25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-10-28 (6945 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.