🕰Analog Days 2026-10-27

Prior close profile (2026-10-26, QQQ $712.20): session +1.11% · 5-day -0.86% · vs 200-DMA +5.1% · below 52-week high -6.3% · RSI2=62 · VIX 18.4 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.48)

Closest analog 2024-04-23 (distance 0.34): session +1.49% · 5-day -1.40% · vs 200-DMA +7.2% · below 52-week high -4.8% · RSI2=74 · VIX 15.7 · policy rate 5.33% (1-year +0.50)
What followed: next day +0.34% · 5-day -0.11% · 20-day +7.23%

Side by side | 2026-10-26 (prior session) +1.11% ↔ 2024-04-23 +1.49%; today maps to the day after 2024-04-23, which was +0.34% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)

Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean -0.17% (up 45% of the time, range -2.8% to +2.7%) · 5-day -0.18% (45%) · 20-day +3.22% (85%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.

25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-10-26 (6943 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.