🕰Analog Days 2026-10-23

Prior close profile (2026-10-22, QQQ $704.47): session -2.86% · 5-day -3.23% · vs 200-DMA +4.1% · below 52-week high -7.3% · RSI2=18 · VIX 19.0 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.48)

Closest analog 2022-01-18 (distance 0.51): session -2.49% · 5-day -2.52% · vs 200-DMA +1.5% · below 52-week high -8.3% · RSI2=13 · VIX 22.8 · policy rate 0.08% (1-year -0.01)
What followed: next day -1.10% · 5-day -6.87% · 20-day -3.89%

Side by side | 2026-10-22 (prior session) -2.86% ↔ 2022-01-18 -2.49%; today maps to the day after 2022-01-18, which was -1.10% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)

Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean +0.12% (up 55% of the time, range -4.4% to +3.4%) · 5-day +0.76% (60%) · 20-day +2.29% (75%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.

25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-10-22 (6941 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.