🕰Analog Days 2026-10-30

Prior close profile (2026-10-29, QQQ $715.34): session -1.42% · 5-day +1.54% · vs 200-DMA +5.3% · below 52-week high -5.8% · RSI2=34 · VIX 17.2 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.49)

Closest analog 2024-04-30 (distance 0.37): session -1.89% · 5-day -0.11% · vs 200-DMA +6.7% · below 52-week high -4.9% · RSI2=25 · VIX 15.7 · policy rate 5.33% (1-year +0.50)
What followed: next day -0.72% · 5-day +3.70% · 20-day +7.50%

Side by side | 2026-10-29 (prior session) -1.42% ↔ 2024-04-30 -1.89%; today maps to the day after 2024-04-30, which was -0.72% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)

Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean -0.05% (up 55% of the time, range -2.8% to +2.3%) · 5-day +0.27% (55%) · 20-day +1.70% (75%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.

25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-10-29 (6946 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.