The 20 most similar historical sessions across 25 features, and what followed them.
Prior close profile (2026-11-09, QQQ $679.35): session +3.54% · 5-day -0.26% · vs 200-DMA -0.3% · below 52-week high -10.6% · RSI2=71 · VIX 19.9 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.24)
Closest analog 2025-03-14 (distance 0.46): session +2.42% · 5-day -2.47% · vs 200-DMA -2.8% · below 52-week high -11.1% · RSI2=69 · VIX 21.8 · policy rate 4.33% (1-year -1.00)
What followed: next day +0.65% ·
5-day +0.25% ·
20-day -5.27%
Side by side | 2026-11-09 (prior session) +3.54% ↔ 2025-03-14 +2.42%; today maps to the day after 2025-03-14, which was +0.65% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)
| Analog (top 5) | Distance |
That day |
Next day |
5 days on |
RSI2 then |
20 days on |
| 2025-03-14 |
0.46 |
+2.42% |
+0.65% |
+0.25% |
69 |
-5.27% |
| 2018-10-16 |
0.53 |
+2.91% |
+0.04% |
-2.23% |
77 |
-6.07% |
| 2019-06-04 |
0.58 |
+2.82% |
+0.74% |
+4.85% |
64 |
+8.63% |
| 2025-11-24 |
0.60 |
+2.56% |
+0.62% |
+2.78% |
81 |
+2.80% |
| 2021-12-21 |
0.61 |
+2.24% |
+1.22% |
+3.17% |
69 |
-7.06% |
Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean +0.67% (up 80% of the time, range -2.4% to +3%) · 5-day +0.97% (65%) · 20-day +2.37% (65%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.
25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-11-09 (6953 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.
Research output, not investment advice.