Daily Forecast 2026-11-10

📋Morning Board

Symbol	Prev close	Change	VIX / VXN (pct)	GEX ($B/1%)	Expected range
QQQ	$679.35	+3.54%	29.0 (89th pctile)	-0.23B flip 679.8	1.72% (1.05–2.90)
SPY	$752.69	+2.37%	19.9 (81st pctile)	+0.06B flip 753.4	1.04% (0.61–1.83)

QQQ RSI(2)71 stretched

QQQ vs 200-day-0.3%

QQQ GammaDealers short gamma ($-0.23B per 1% move), flip 679.8 sits -0.4% above spot

How to read this · VIX

σ Volatility Indices (VIX / VXN)

VIX = S&P 500 30-day implied volatility (maps to SPY); VXN = the same measure for the Nasdaq 100 (maps to QQQ). Percentile = share of the past year (252 trading days) that closed below the current value.

Index	Current	Percentile	1-year range	As of
VIX · SPY	19.92	81% pctile · Elevated (fear)	13.5 ─ median 17.1 ─ 31.1	2026-11-09
VXN · QQQ	28.97	89% pctile · Elevated (fear)	17.2 ─ median 23.5 ─ 38.3	2026-11-09

CBOE official daily closes (VIX from 1990, VXN from 2009). These are closing values, not intraday — the morning brief uses the prior session's close and the evening review the current close, so the series stays consistent with history with no point-in-time bias.

📏Range Forecast

Today's Range Forecast (pre-open)

This section answers one question only: how far price is likely to swing between the open and the close (high minus low). It does not forecast direction — the directional version has been backtested repeatedly and produced no reliable signal.

Symbol	Tier	Forecast day range	80% interval	vs last 20d
SPY	Normal	1.04%	0.61% ~ 1.83%	Slightly below normal
A normal day with no particular signal. Run your usual parameters; no volatility-driven adjustment needed.
QQQ	High	1.72%	1.05% ~ 2.90%	About normal
Today is likely to swing harder than usual, but the direction is unknown. If selling options, either widen strikes by roughly half again or cut size — at normal width the probability of being breached roughly doubles while the premium does not rise nearly as much. Long straddles are favourable today. Stops must be widened: normal stop distance on a day like this is close to a random exit.

How to read this table
· Forecast day range: how far today's high is from today's low, as a percentage of the current price.For example 1.04% above means the day's high and low are expected to differ by about 1.04%.
· 80% interval:on 8 days out of 10 the actual value lands between 0.61% and 1.83%; on the other 2 it falls outside. That is the honest error band — the real value may be half the forecast, or half again as large.
· Tier: days are bucketed into large / medium / small. When it says “High”, about 6 times out of 10 the day really is large, versus barely 3 in 10 for a blind guess. Good enough to size positions and choose strike width; not good enough to compute precise P&L.
· “Tier” and “vs last 20d” can look contradictory, and that is normal: the tier compares against the past several years, the right-hand column against the last 20 days. “High tier but about normal” means the recent period has itself been high-volatility — today is not exceptional, but the overall environment is jumpy and position sizing should stay cautious.
· A 10:00 intraday revision email follows, folding in the actual range and volume from the first half hour; the forecast gets sharper then.

Technical: out-of-sample R² SPY 0.51 / QQQ 0.48, model refits on every run.

ΓGamma Map

Symbol	Spot	Net GEX ($B per 1%)	Regime	Zero-gamma flip	Call wall	Put wall	Pin
QQQ	$679.24	-0.22B	Dealers short gamma	$683.38 (spot below)	$680 +0.11% · OI 2,402	$675 -0.62% · OI 6,663	—
SPY	$752.56	-1.04B	Dealers short gamma	$755.60 (spot below)	$755 +0.32% · OI 1,849	$750 -0.34% · OI 3,845	—

Positive gamma: dealers sell rallies and buy dips, damping moves. Negative gamma: dealers chase, amplifying moves.

Walls are gamma-weighted, not raw OI. 503-day test: a NEAR call wall is real resistance and breakouts through it run shorter; a FAR call wall breaks more often (a volatility tell). Put walls show no measurable support.

DTE≤7 · Walls use the front expiry · post-close snapshot

🕰Analog Days

Prior close profile (2026-11-09, QQQ $679.35): session +3.54% · 5-day -0.26% · vs 200-DMA -0.3% · below 52-week high -10.6% · RSI2=71 · VIX 19.9 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.24)

Closest analog 2025-03-14 (distance 0.46): session +2.42% · 5-day -2.47% · vs 200-DMA -2.8% · below 52-week high -11.1% · RSI2=69 · VIX 21.8 · policy rate 4.33% (1-year -1.00)
What followed: next day +0.65% · 5-day +0.25% · 20-day -5.27%

Side by side | 2026-11-09 (prior session) +3.54% ↔ 2025-03-14 +2.42%; today maps to the day after 2025-03-14, which was +0.65% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)

Analog (top 5)	Distance	That day	Next day	5 days on	RSI2 then	20 days on
2025-03-14	0.46	+2.42%	+0.65%	+0.25%	69	-5.27%
2018-10-16	0.53	+2.91%	+0.04%	-2.23%	77	-6.07%
2019-06-04	0.58	+2.82%	+0.74%	+4.85%	64	+8.63%
2025-11-24	0.60	+2.56%	+0.62%	+2.78%	81	+2.80%
2021-12-21	0.61	+2.24%	+1.22%	+3.17%	69	-7.06%

Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean +0.67% (up 80% of the time, range -2.4% to +3%) · 5-day +0.97% (65%) · 20-day +2.37% (65%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.

25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-11-09 (6953 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.

📅Calendar

[CPI] 11-10 Tue 08:30 ET — October CPI data; markets watching whether inflation keeps slowing, which would set the tone for rate-cut expectations. Released: core CPI +0.3% m/m, above the +0.2% expected; headline 2.6% y/y (estimated via model due to the data gap from the prior government shutdown), above the 2.5% expected — stickier-than-expected inflation stoked concerns after release.
[Fed Williams Speech] 11-12 Thu early morning ET — New York Fed President Williams speaks publicly; markets watching his language on the employment/inflation tradeoff and the path for further rate cuts.

Sources:
- [US inflation rises to 2.6% in October as core measure remains firm](https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4379334/us-inflation-rises-october-core-measure-remains-firm)
- [October Inflation Inches Higher But Stays In Line With Expectations](https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/october-inflation-inches-higher-but-stays-in-line-with-expectations/cJ4jJhIRfR)
- [2026 Economic Calendar](https://cmegroup.econoday.com/resource_ctr_why)
- [economc week ahead november 10 14](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economc-week-ahead-november-10-14/)

🎯9:00 Forecast

9:00 premarket price$671.09 (vs prior close -1.13%, Prev close $678.76)

LeanLEAN

P(close above 9:00 price)57%

Expected close$671.5

Expected high$676.7

Expected low$665.2

Expected range1.72% (1.05–2.90%)

Gategap_down_fade

Features used5 (Missing inputs: oi)

Model versionv0.3-gates · 2026-11-10 09:02:45 ET

Posted at 09:05 ET, scored at 16:45 ET. The ledger keeps every call — misses included.

✅Scorecard

Called	Actual
P(up) 57% · close $671.5 · range $665.2–$676.7	Open $672.54 · High $680.95 · Low $667.05 · Close $674.76 (Close vs 9:00 price +0.55%)

Direction✓ hit

Range inside band✓ hit 2.05% vs 1.05–2.90%

Expected high touchedyes

Expected low touchedno

Brier0.188 Brier (naive) 0.196

Close error0.48% Naive error 0.55%

Running tally · 64 calls scored · direction hit rate 30/64 · avg Brier vs naive 0.257 / 0.257

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

🌡Sentiment

AAII Retail Sentiment Survey · week of 2026-11-04

Bull−bear spread -14.3 bulls 34.1% / bears 48.4%

39-year percentile 12.8% · 5-year percentile 28.1% (the distribution has shifted down; use the 5-year figure)

Historically a contrarian indicator, and it takes 3–4 weeks to work, not 1–2. Since 2020 the effect has broken down and at times inverted — low-weight atmosphere only.

CNN Fear & Greed Index · live

33.5 fear

prior close 31.7 · one week ago 23.5 · one month ago 43.5
Percentile since 2022 24.4%

Backtested: no predictive power for same-day or next-day direction (its components are that day's price action, which makes it circular). Forward absolute returns are positive from every bucket; only the magnitude differs — pure atmosphere.

CBOE Equity Put/Call · 2026-11-09

0.56 index P/C 1.06 · total P/C 0.88

Percentile since 2023 30.9% (median over the same period 0.59)
Low = retail crowding into calls (speculative heat); high = heavy put demand (defensive)

Backtested: an extremely low P/C (call mania) does not mark tops — forward returns are in fact slightly positive, the opposite of the popular claim. Atmosphere only.

All four have been backtested: none carries tradable predictive power for same-day or next-day direction. They describe the sentiment backdrop and are not a basis for buying or selling.

🧭Macro Score

Total 63.8 / 100 · Posture: Neutral (2026-11-10)

Category	Value	Score	Note
Macro		18.5 / 20
└ GDP growth (ann.)	3.4	5 / 5
└ Core CPI YoY	2.6	3.5 / 5
└ Unemployment	4.1	5 / 5
└ PMI (mfg+svc avg)	55	5 / 5
Monetary policy		10 / 25
└ Real rate (FFR − core CPI)	1.4	8 / 8	neutral zone 0–1.5%
└ Policy stance & guidance	model judgment	1 / 10	model judgment
└ Communication vs market	model judgment	1 / 7	model judgment
Earnings		16.5 / 20
└ EPS growth YoY %	31.4	5 / 5
└ Forward P/E	17.7	6.5 / 8	10-yr avg ≈ 17–18
└ Earnings quality	model judgment	2 / 4	model judgment
└ EPS beat rate %	84	3 / 3
Liquidity		9 / 10
└ IG credit spread OAS %	0.93	4 / 4
└ M2 YoY %	5.7	3 / 3	overheating also penalised
└ Financial conditions	—	2 / 3	proxied by spreads + M2
Policy & geopolitics		3 / 15
└ Domestic policy risk	model judgment	3 / 7.5	model judgment
└ Geopolitical risk	model judgment	0 / 7.5	model judgment
Sentiment & technicals		6.8 / 10
└ VIX regime	19.92	3 / 4	low = seller regime, high = oversold signals active; not directional
└ Trend (200-day, SPY+QQQ)	1	1.5 / 3	the only trend state that passed FDR
└ Flows / rotation / volume	model judgment	2.25 / 3	volume ratio + rotation dispersion + breadth; conditions, not direction

Weeks-to-months backdrop, not an overnight signal. Being forward-tested; it does not drive any order.