🕰Analog Days 2026-10-21

Prior close profile (2026-10-20, QQQ $717.63): session -0.10% · 5-day -3.49% · vs 200-DMA +6.2% · below 52-week high -5.5% · RSI2=40 · VIX 17.3 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.48)

Closest analog 2024-11-04 (distance 0.42): session -0.29% · 5-day -1.90% · vs 200-DMA +5.9% · below 52-week high -3.4% · RSI2=30 · VIX 22.0 · policy rate 4.83% (1-year -0.50)
What followed: next day +1.28% · 5-day +5.73% · 20-day +6.35%

Side by side | 2026-10-20 (prior session) -0.10% ↔ 2024-11-04 -0.29%; today maps to the day after 2024-11-04, which was +1.28% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)

Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean -0.57% (up 35% of the time, range -2.8% to +1.5%) · 5-day +0.29% (55%) · 20-day +2.73% (80%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.

25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-10-20 (6939 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.