🕰Analog Days 2026-10-16

Prior close profile (2026-10-15, QQQ $728.00): session -0.13% · 5-day -2.62% · vs 200-DMA +7.9% · below 52-week high -4.2% · RSI2=3 · VIX 16.5 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.47)

Closest analog 2024-12-30 (distance 0.39): session -1.33% · 5-day -0.59% · vs 200-DMA +8.7% · below 52-week high -4.2% · RSI2=11 · VIX 17.4 · policy rate 4.33% (1-year -1.00)
What followed: next day -0.85% · 5-day -0.08% · 20-day +1.44%

Side by side | 2026-10-15 (prior session) -0.13% ↔ 2024-12-30 -1.33%; today maps to the day after 2024-12-30, which was -0.85% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)

Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean +0.76% (up 85% of the time, range -1.1% to +2.9%) · 5-day +0.85% (70%) · 20-day +1.26% (55%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.

25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-10-15 (6936 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.