🕰Analog Days 2026-11-11

Prior close profile (2026-11-10, QQQ $674.76): session -0.68% · 5-day -1.54% · vs 200-DMA -1.0% · below 52-week high -11.2% · RSI2=58 · VIX 19.5 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.24)

Closest analog 2024-08-09 (distance 0.60): session +0.52% · 5-day +0.37% · vs 200-DMA +4.4% · below 52-week high -10.4% · RSI2=79 · VIX 20.4 · policy rate 5.33% (1-year +0.00)
What followed: next day +0.22% · 5-day +5.47% · 20-day +0.90%

Side by side | 2026-11-10 (prior session) -0.68% ↔ 2024-08-09 +0.52%; today maps to the day after 2024-08-09, which was +0.22% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)

Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean +0.03% (up 55% of the time, range -3.2% to +2.8%) · 5-day +1.57% (75%) · 20-day +1.58% (70%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.

25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-11-10 (6954 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.