🕰Analog Days 2026-11-04

Prior close profile (2026-11-03, QQQ $685.28): session +0.62% · 5-day -4.99% · vs 200-DMA +0.8% · below 52-week high -9.8% · RSI2=28 · VIX 20.8 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.23)

Closest analog 2019-05-30 (distance 0.45): session +0.42% · 5-day -2.35% · vs 200-DMA +1.4% · below 52-week high -7.5% · RSI2=41 · VIX 17.3 · policy rate 2.39% (1-year +0.69)
What followed: next day -1.60% · 5-day +0.48% · 20-day +5.50%

Side by side | 2026-11-03 (prior session) +0.62% ↔ 2019-05-30 +0.42%; today maps to the day after 2019-05-30, which was -1.60% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)

Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean +0.29% (up 65% of the time, range -4.4% to +2.7%) · 5-day +1.38% (70%) · 20-day +3.75% (85%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.

25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-11-03 (6949 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.