The 20 most similar historical sessions across 25 features, and what followed them.
Prior close profile (2026-11-05, QQQ $647.05): session -6.49% · 5-day -9.55% · vs 200-DMA -4.9% · below 52-week high -14.8% · RSI2=9 · VIX 28.2 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.24)
Closest analog 2018-10-10 (distance 0.80): session -4.40% · 5-day -7.65% · vs 200-DMA +0.2% · below 52-week high -8.0% · RSI2=3 · VIX 23.0 · policy rate 2.18% (1-year +1.02)
What followed: next day -1.24% ·
5-day +3.24% ·
20-day +2.24%
Side by side | 2026-11-05 (prior session) -6.49% ↔ 2018-10-10 -4.40%; today maps to the day after 2018-10-10, which was -1.24% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)
| Analog (top 5) | Distance |
That day |
Next day |
5 days on |
RSI2 then |
20 days on |
| 2018-10-10 |
0.80 |
-4.40% |
-1.24% |
+3.24% |
3 |
+2.24% |
| 2015-08-21 |
0.84 |
-4.37% |
-3.85% |
+3.14% |
1 |
+3.20% |
| 2022-01-21 |
0.86 |
-2.77% |
+0.46% |
+0.03% |
1 |
-2.89% |
| 2025-03-10 |
0.93 |
-3.88% |
-0.24% |
+2.12% |
11 |
-10.37% |
| 2011-08-04 |
1.01 |
-4.65% |
-0.63% |
-1.98% |
8 |
+0.72% |
Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean -0.18% (up 50% of the time, range -3.8% to +3.7%) · 5-day +2.14% (85%) · 20-day +1.79% (65%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.
25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-11-05 (6951 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.
Research output, not investment advice.