🕰Analog Days 2026-10-20

Prior close profile (2026-10-19, QQQ $718.36): session +1.21% · 5-day -3.71% · vs 200-DMA +6.4% · below 52-week high -5.4% · RSI2=43 · VIX 18.4 · policy rate 3.63% (1-year -0.48)

Closest analog 2025-02-26 (distance 0.44): session +0.24% · 5-day -4.63% · vs 200-DMA +4.8% · below 52-week high -4.6% · RSI2=17 · VIX 19.1 · policy rate 4.33% (1-year -1.00)
What followed: next day -2.78% · 5-day -2.44% · 20-day -5.87%

Side by side | 2026-10-19 (prior session) +1.21% ↔ 2025-02-26 +0.24%; today maps to the day after 2025-02-26, which was -2.78% (single days are mostly coincidence — the Top-20 statistics below are more reliable)

Top-20 analog statistics (deduplicated — far more reliable than any single day):
Next day mean +0.18% (up 65% of the time, range -2.8% to +3%) · 5-day +0.79% (60%) · 20-day +2.92% (80%)
Note: QQQ drifts up over time, so the unconditional probability of any given next day being positive is already about 55%. Compare the “up %” above against that baseline, not against 50%.

25 features in three equally weighted groups: price position (return / distance to moving averages / position in the 52-week range / trend slope / consecutive up-down days / gaps) + technicals (RSI2 / RSI14 / volatility / relative volume / volume trend / range / KDJ-J / Bollinger %B / MACD histogram) + environment (VIX / rate cycle / credit spreads / dollar index / oil / S&P P/E / CBOE equity P/C / AAII bull-bear spread). Weighted z-score Euclidean distance; matching pool 1999-03-22–2026-10-19 (6938 days, excluding ±60 days around the target). Narrative context, not a trading signal: after four rounds of feature engineering the Top-1 next-day directional hit rate tops out at 54.9%, still below the 57% you get by always guessing up. The data is given in full, but do not use it for direction — it answers “which historical setup does today resemble”, not “will tomorrow be up or down”.