✅Scorecard 2026-10-20

Every 9:00 forecast scored against the actual session, plus the running tally.

Called	Actual
P(up) 56% · close $715.5 · range $710.2–$720.4	Open $715.25 · High $722.75 · Low $710.39 · Close $717.63 (Close vs 9:00 price +0.30%)

Direction✓ hit

Range inside band✓ hit 1.72% vs 0.87–2.40%

Expected high touchedyes

Expected low touchedno

Brier0.196 Brier (naive) 0.196

Close error0.29% Naive error 0.30%

Running tally · 64 calls scored · direction hit rate 30/64 · avg Brier vs naive 0.257 / 0.257

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

Archive 2026-11-12 · 2026-11-11 · 2026-11-10 · 2026-11-09 · 2026-11-06 · 2026-11-05 · 2026-11-04 · 2026-11-03 · 2026-11-02 · 2026-10-30 · 2026-10-29 · 2026-10-28 · 2026-10-27 · 2026-10-26 · 2026-10-23 · 2026-10-22 · 2026-10-21 · 2026-10-19 · 2026-10-16 · 2026-10-15

Research output, not investment advice.