✅Scorecard 2026-10-22

Every 9:00 forecast scored against the actual session, plus the running tally.

Called	Actual
P(up) 57% · close $714.4 · range $709.0–$718.6	Open $713.61 · High $715.43 · Low $701.90 · Close $704.47 (Close vs 9:00 price -1.32%)

Direction✗ miss

Range inside band✓ hit 1.87% vs 0.82–2.27%

Expected high touchedno

Expected low touchedyes

Brier0.322 Brier (naive) 0.310

Close error1.38% Naive error 1.32%

Running tally · 64 calls scored · direction hit rate 30/64 · avg Brier vs naive 0.257 / 0.257

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

Archive 2026-11-12 · 2026-11-11 · 2026-11-10 · 2026-11-09 · 2026-11-06 · 2026-11-05 · 2026-11-04 · 2026-11-03 · 2026-11-02 · 2026-10-30 · 2026-10-29 · 2026-10-28 · 2026-10-27 · 2026-10-26 · 2026-10-23 · 2026-10-21 · 2026-10-20 · 2026-10-19 · 2026-10-16 · 2026-10-15

Research output, not investment advice.