✅Scorecard 2026-10-21

Every 9:00 forecast scored against the actual session, plus the running tally.

Called	Actual
P(up) 56% · close $721.5 · range $716.1–$726.5	Open $722.22 · High $727.95 · Low $719.71 · Close $725.20 (Close vs 9:00 price +0.52%)

Direction✓ hit

Range inside band✓ hit 1.15% vs 0.87–2.41%

Expected high touchedyes

Expected low touchedno

Brier0.196 Brier (naive) 0.196

Close error0.51% Naive error 0.52%

Running tally · 64 calls scored · direction hit rate 30/64 · avg Brier vs naive 0.257 / 0.257

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

Archive 2026-11-12 · 2026-11-11 · 2026-11-10 · 2026-11-09 · 2026-11-06 · 2026-11-05 · 2026-11-04 · 2026-11-03 · 2026-11-02 · 2026-10-30 · 2026-10-29 · 2026-10-28 · 2026-10-27 · 2026-10-26 · 2026-10-23 · 2026-10-22 · 2026-10-20 · 2026-10-19 · 2026-10-16 · 2026-10-15

Research output, not investment advice.