✅Scorecard 2026-11-03

Every 9:00 forecast scored against the actual session, plus the running tally.

Called	Actual
P(up) 56% · close $686.1 · range $679.5–$692.3	Open $684.39 · High $688.69 · Low $683.18 · Close $685.28 (Close vs 9:00 price -0.12%)

Direction✗ miss

Range inside band✗ miss 0.81% vs 1.14–3.15%

Expected high touchedno

Expected low touchedno

Brier0.310 Brier (naive) 0.310

Close error0.13% Naive error 0.12%

Running tally · 64 calls scored · direction hit rate 30/64 · avg Brier vs naive 0.257 / 0.257

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

Archive 2026-11-12 · 2026-11-11 · 2026-11-10 · 2026-11-09 · 2026-11-06 · 2026-11-05 · 2026-11-04 · 2026-11-02 · 2026-10-30 · 2026-10-29 · 2026-10-28 · 2026-10-27 · 2026-10-26 · 2026-10-23 · 2026-10-22 · 2026-10-21 · 2026-10-20 · 2026-10-19 · 2026-10-16 · 2026-10-15

Research output, not investment advice.