✅Scorecard 2026-10-23

Every 9:00 forecast scored against the actual session, plus the running tally.

Called	Actual
P(up) 56% · close $702.6 · range $695.7–$708.9	Open $702.20 · High $709.30 · Low $701.16 · Close $704.40 (Close vs 9:00 price +0.27%)

Direction✓ hit

Range inside band✓ hit 1.16% vs 1.14–3.17%

Expected high touchedyes

Expected low touchedno

Brier0.196 Brier (naive) 0.196

Close error0.26% Naive error 0.27%

Running tally · 64 calls scored · direction hit rate 30/64 · avg Brier vs naive 0.257 / 0.257

Naive baseline = "close equals 9:00 price, always 55% up".

Archive 2026-11-12 · 2026-11-11 · 2026-11-10 · 2026-11-09 · 2026-11-06 · 2026-11-05 · 2026-11-04 · 2026-11-03 · 2026-11-02 · 2026-10-30 · 2026-10-29 · 2026-10-28 · 2026-10-27 · 2026-10-26 · 2026-10-22 · 2026-10-21 · 2026-10-20 · 2026-10-19 · 2026-10-16 · 2026-10-15

Research output, not investment advice.